CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-01-14T13:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-01-14T13:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18827/-1
CME Note: Visible in SW of STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2/C3, moving quickly through the FOV. Associated with a large eruption from AR 12925 (S33W40), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 beginning 2022-01-14T12:54Z. UPDATE: There appears to be a weak component rotation of two components of magnetic field at around 2022-01-17T14:00Z, preceded by drop in density/temperature. However, according to Lan, there is no sign of a shock and there appears to be no ICME arrival on 2022-01-17.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-01-16T23:39Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1251.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021] u_r = 724.893 Acceleration: -0.263270 Duration in seconds: 5297973.9 Duration in days: 61.319142 Duration in seconds: 208876.10 Duration in days: 2.4175474 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -0.26 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 669.9 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 16/01/2022 Time: 23:39 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 40.65 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2022-01-15T07:00Z
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